Look towards the end of this chart and you will see the "bumps" that both candidates got from their respective conventions. The Democratic Convention, held from August 25-28 is shown in the blue upward spike towards the end of the chart end. Going in to the convention Obama had about a two point lead. After the convention ended, Obama had a spike of about 4 points as is shown by the blue line on the top at its highest point. This is where it gets really interesting. The Republicans held their convention on Sept 1-4. Where the red line starts to turn upward is on day 2 or 3 of the convention. This shows the effect the Republican Convention had on support for John McCain. Not only does Republican support increase, but Democratic Support substantially decreases around that time giving McCain the lead. On Sept.2, Obama was leading the polling with a 49.2% lead to 42.8% for McCain. On Sept. 9 McCain now leads with a 48.4% lead to 45.6% for Obama. With the conventions setting records of viewers this year, the election may already be decided, especially if the American public has already seen enough politics on their televisions instead of their favorite sitcoms and decides to tune out. Of course, it will be interesting to see if the debates are widely viewed and how they, there will be three debates, impact the outcome of the election.
12 comments:
I don't think the election has already been decided just based on the convention. I think the debates will attract huge numbers of viewers in this election and that they will have an equally huge impact on election day.
There was indeed record viewings for the conventions!! It is really no surprise that McCain has taken the lead. His big appeal is Sarah Palin. Sane people cannot help but love and respect her. I am very excited for the debates to see the candidates go at it. Admit it. You know that more people have paid attention to these conventions now than in the past. The debates are going to be 5x as thrilling. But not only the political gurus are involved, but the youth of the nation as well. We are all intriqued. And being involved is what will determine who will win the Presidency. There is still hope that your candidate will win. Only time and the debates will tell.
I think McCain gained a lead when he picked Palin as his running mate and started attacking Barack Obama. Pointing out that Barack wanted change, but never detailed what change he wanted swayed a few voters I think.
Polls change so often its hard to tell what the American people really think. Plus, It does not matter what we think. Our votes do not affect who becomes the next president. So most polls are a waste of money.
I honestly think that these upcoming debates will be highly influential, and extremely interesting to watch. I also noticed that McCain's appeal went up after Sarah Palin came into the picture, but I can't agree with pj lover "Sane people cannot help but love and respect her." A. I do respect her. B. I don't like her.
Sure, she's probably the nicest "hockey mom" the US has seen in a while, but I don't like her views on any of the issues, thus I don't like her.
And I do believe that I am sane by saying this, thank you very much.
I disagree. Polls are an indicator of who we are going to support in November, and as we come closer and closer to the date, the candidates are going to want to know whether or not they are in the lead, and what they can do to win over more people.
You guys are all saying that he has had this bump of support when he selected Sarah Palin, but should the people who vote the Commander-in-chief into office be voting for the one who's going to be president, not the one that will just be behind the president? I'm not saying that she won't influence McCain, but voters shouldn't be basing their decision off of his new running mate, although she is pretty awesome.
I wish the polls would stay that way! But I am pretty sure with the American people, the numbers will definatly fluctuate. But it seems like the party with the last convention has the better deal.
I agree with Charlie, but I would just like to point out that with McCain being 72 and all...it would be wise for the American people to pick a vice president who they are especially ready to put in office as well.
I think everyone is overestimating a little about how big the debates are going to be. I mean sure the conventions drew a record number of viewers, but after two straight weeks of watching politics who is going to want to sit down during their free time at night and watch more politics? I sure wouldn't. So while I agree that the debates will be big, I don't really think that they'll be THAT big.
I also agree with charlie, I dont think that the vote should be based on Palin (even though she has great points and is a really good speaker). I was listening to the radio this morning and they also agreed that the vice president shouldnt be changing the whole election. I mean how many times during Bush's reign did Dick Cheney make different bills or propositions?? Not very many that i can remember so it shouldnt be that big of a deciding factor!
It is really amazing how Palin affected the "might" outcome of the election. It's almost like the election is decided. Well... not exactly but ever since McCain chose Sarah Palin the results is so unexpected than a month ago.
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