Published Monday October 13, 2008
Race For the White House: Independents grow in numbers, clout
BY ROBYNN TYSVER
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER
Since the 2004 presidential election, the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District has become less Republican and more independent.
And although thousands of Democrats have been added to the voter rolls since January, that party's share of the electorate in the 2nd District was unchanged from four years ago. That's as of Oct. 8.
The addition of 5,000 independents underscores the importance of those voters as the district shapes up as a battleground in the presidential race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
"Nebraska is just like most areas of the country," said Eric Van Horn, a spokesman for the Nebraska Democratic Party. "The independents, if they swing hard one way or another, they're the ones who will determine the election."
After decades of being ignored, Omaha and the 2nd District are finally garnering some attention in a fall presidential campaign.
It began when Obama announced in the summer that he planned to compete for one of Nebraska's five electoral votes.
Obama has established three offices in Omaha, with the help of paid staffers and volunteers. The 2nd District consists of Douglas County and a slice of Sarpy County.
Republican John McCain has not set up an office here, but he scored points with the GOP base last week when his vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, made a quick trip into Omaha for a rally.
There has been a flurry of election activity in the district, with both parties working hard to register new voters and canvass neighborhoods.
The percentage of 2nd District voters who identify themselves as independents rose by 2 points since fall 2004, while the number of Republicans dropped by 2 points, according to Oct. 8 voter registration numbers supplied by Douglas and Sarpy County election commissioners.
Douglas County has added 10,000 Democrats to the rolls since Jan. 8, but that fact is less extraordinary than it may appear at first blush.
First, many of those voters registered to participate in the Democratic Party's high-profile caucuses in February. And second, many others were returning Democrats who had registered as Republicans in 2006 to vote in the GOP gubernatorial primary between Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman, said Kris Pierce, executive director of the Douglas County Democrats.
"We've had to work to get those back," Pierce said.
In 2004, Democrats accounted for about 38 percent of registered voters in the 2nd District, a percentage that was unchanged as of Oct. 8.
In raw numbers, however, both Democrats and Republicans have lost registered voters since 2004. Republicans dropped the most, about 10,000. Democrats lost about 3,000. A big chunk of the drop was due to the purging of registration files.
The numbers won't be final until later this month. Hundreds of new voter registration requests continue to be filed daily with local election commissioners. The postmark deadline to request voter registration by mail is Friday. The in-person deadline to register is Oct. 24.
Democrats say that although their share of registered voters was unchanged, they still think they have a better chance with independent voters this year in light of the economic crisis and the unpopular Iraq war.
They also are excited by Obama's candidacy. Unlike in 2004, a presidential campaign is working in Omaha to boost Democratic turnout at the polls, Pierce said.
"This is a different election than any previous election Nebraska has ever seen," Pierce said. "I predict there will be — what's the word I want to use — there will be no-shows on the Republican side."
David Boomer, campaign manager for Rep. Lee Terry, R-Neb., said Republicans have been on a slight downward registration trend the past four years, but he noted that, as of Oct. 8, the GOP still outnumbered Democrats in Terry's 2nd District by about 12,000 registered voters.
"The district has not become more Democratic; it's become more independent," Boomer said.
He predicted that the GOP will have the edge on Nov. 4 because Republicans tend to turn out at the polls more than Democrats.
About 72 percent of Republicans voted in the 2nd District in 2004, when 66 percent of Democrats cast ballots.
2 comments:
Wow now comments come on people this election could change our country, with the rise of the independent party it could easily swing Nebraska toward the democratic party. However Nebraska is traditionally a deep repulican state and I very highly doubt that there is anyway a midwestern state ,that is highly christian and conservative, will end up being a blue state on that big map on election night.
Rural Nebraska may be highly Christian and conservative, but in bigger cities people tend to be more Democratic. Since the second district is mainly Omaha and Bellevue, more highly populated areas, there could be more people that vote democrat. Expecially in an election like this one.
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